Will the Scottish team finally end the All Blacks hoodoo?
Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks
Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT
Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.
After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.
A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."
Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.
A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.
Recent History
Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.
During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Team News
Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.
Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.
As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Missing Players
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.
The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.
During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.
Replacement Concerns
Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Strategic Decisions
Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.
The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.
Historical Context
Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.
Statistical Analysis
For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.
Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.
Required Performance
During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.
In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.
Final Analysis
Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.
But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.